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  • 2

    posted a message on Gwent Concepts: The Mulligan 'Bug'

    Sure! Let's do the last number, 0.71. We assume that Geralt is mulliganed between cards 3 and 4 in your deck i.e. ending up in position 4 out of 16 before the replacement card is drawn. Then, the top card is drawn, and now Geralt is #3/15.

    If neither Triss nor roach are mulliganed in a position above Geralt, then Geralt will end up being the top card of your deck after the mulligan, as cards in positions 1 and 2 will be drawn into your hand to replace Triss+Roach. So we need to find the probability that neither Triss nor Roach are mulliganed above Geralt.

    Roach is mulliganed second, and ends up above Geralt if he is placed above card 1, between cards 1 and 2 or between card 2 and card 3 (card 3 is geralt). So there is a 3/16 chance of Roach being placed above Geralt.

    Then, suppose that Roach is not placed above Geralt. The top card is drawn, and now Geralt is in position #2/15. Triss is now mulliganed, and the probability that she ends up above Geralt is 2/16. 

    So we have that the probability that neither Roach nor Triss ends up above Geralt is 1 - 3/16 - 13/16 * 2/16 (1 - Prob(Triss above Geralt) - Prob(Triss not above Geralt) * Prob(Roach above Geralt) ). If we didn't include the Prob(Triss not above Geralt) term we would be double counting the situations where both are placed above Geralt

    The other numbers are similar, except there is a lower probability that Geralt is eclipsed since he is mulliganed into a higher position in the deck

    Posted in: Articles
  • 0

    posted a message on Gwent Concepts: The Mulligan 'Bug'

    Thank you! Added King Bran to the relevant parts - can't believe I missed my favourite leader in the write-up!

    Posted in: Articles
  • 5

    posted a message on Gwent Concepts: Mulligan and Blacklisting

    This phenomenon does occur, but it has been pretty much confirmed that this is by design. Blacklisted cards being closer to the top of the deck than other cards will actually be the focus of my next article in the series!

    Posted in: Articles
  • 2

    posted a message on How to Improve Your Nilfgaard Starter Deck!

    Hey Hanseul! Fake Ciri is unfortunately rather terrible as I'm pretty sure her ability to come back gets deactivated by locks (which most decks, from beginner to competitive run), which makes her work for your opponent instead of you. Hoping to see a buff in the upcoming patch (and what a coincidence, there's a dev live stream tomorrow!)

    Posted in: News
  • 2

    posted a message on How to Improve Your Nilfgaard Starter Deck!

    Calveit is probably the better leader, but that's mostly due to how much better he is with Imperial Golems (without them, Emhyr edges him out, in my opinion) - which new players don't have access to. And crafting them isn't something I would necessarily recommend (better to improve your 'bad cards' first). At this time though, Calveit is definitely the stronger choice in medium to high rank play.

    Posted in: News
  • 2

    posted a message on How to Improve Your Monsters Starter Deck!

    Ge'els is great, but I don't think he's the best first craft. Improving consistency and providing choice is less important than increasing power in a deck full of budget golds.

    Posted in: News
  • 0

    posted a message on How to Improve Your Monsters Starter Deck!

    Hey Nyando, I've clarified what bronzes you should end up with in the guide itself. Essentially you should start with running 3 each of the Wild Hunts and 3 Biting Frosts to go with your Hounds. If you find yourself often in need of first light/Alzur's/Lacerate/any other tech bronze, I would recommend taking out a Warrior for it.

    Posted in: News
  • 2

    posted a message on Winning Decklists from the Gwent Challenger Qualifier Tournament

    Vishra mostly banned monsters and maybe Henselt. Fion banned ST (at least in our match)

    Posted in: News
  • 2

    posted a message on Skellige Faction Guide

    Great article Panda! Perfect for new players and people coming back after a break. Looking forward to the other factions!

    Posted in: Guides
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