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  • 2

    posted a message on Gwent Concepts: The Mulligan 'Bug'

    Sure! Let's do the last number, 0.71. We assume that Geralt is mulliganed between cards 3 and 4 in your deck i.e. ending up in position 4 out of 16 before the replacement card is drawn. Then, the top card is drawn, and now Geralt is #3/15.

    If neither Triss nor roach are mulliganed in a position above Geralt, then Geralt will end up being the top card of your deck after the mulligan, as cards in positions 1 and 2 will be drawn into your hand to replace Triss+Roach. So we need to find the probability that neither Triss nor Roach are mulliganed above Geralt.

    Roach is mulliganed second, and ends up above Geralt if he is placed above card 1, between cards 1 and 2 or between card 2 and card 3 (card 3 is geralt). So there is a 3/16 chance of Roach being placed above Geralt.

    Then, suppose that Roach is not placed above Geralt. The top card is drawn, and now Geralt is in position #2/15. Triss is now mulliganed, and the probability that she ends up above Geralt is 2/16. 

    So we have that the probability that neither Roach nor Triss ends up above Geralt is 1 - 3/16 - 13/16 * 2/16 (1 - Prob(Triss above Geralt) - Prob(Triss not above Geralt) * Prob(Roach above Geralt) ). If we didn't include the Prob(Triss not above Geralt) term we would be double counting the situations where both are placed above Geralt

    The other numbers are similar, except there is a lower probability that Geralt is eclipsed since he is mulliganed into a higher position in the deck

    Posted in: Articles
  • 5

    posted a message on Gwent Concepts: Mulligan and Blacklisting

    This phenomenon does occur, but it has been pretty much confirmed that this is by design. Blacklisted cards being closer to the top of the deck than other cards will actually be the focus of my next article in the series!

    Posted in: Articles
  • 2

    posted a message on LifeCoach 70% WR 4K MMR Skellige Buff

    It's rather bad - a lot of the cards have seen changes (Coral, Roach, etc...) which somewhat ruins the deck's gameplay, I would suggest checking out one of the Crach decks from the last few weeks, e.g. http://www.gwentdb.com/decks/18604-top-1-pandas-crach-an-craite

    Posted in: LifeCoach 70% WR 4K MMR Skellige Buff
  • 2

    posted a message on Gwent Balance and Game Changes Coming Soon!

    Not yet, devs said it's coming soon(tm)

    Posted in: News
  • 2

    posted a message on How to Improve Your Nilfgaard Starter Deck!

    Hey Hanseul! Fake Ciri is unfortunately rather terrible as I'm pretty sure her ability to come back gets deactivated by locks (which most decks, from beginner to competitive run), which makes her work for your opponent instead of you. Hoping to see a buff in the upcoming patch (and what a coincidence, there's a dev live stream tomorrow!)

    Posted in: News
  • 2

    posted a message on How to Improve Your Nilfgaard Starter Deck!

    Calveit is probably the better leader, but that's mostly due to how much better he is with Imperial Golems (without them, Emhyr edges him out, in my opinion) - which new players don't have access to. And crafting them isn't something I would necessarily recommend (better to improve your 'bad cards' first). At this time though, Calveit is definitely the stronger choice in medium to high rank play.

    Posted in: News
  • 2

    posted a message on How to Improve Your Monsters Starter Deck!

    Ge'els is great, but I don't think he's the best first craft. Improving consistency and providing choice is less important than increasing power in a deck full of budget golds.

    Posted in: News
  • 2

    posted a message on Winning Decklists from the Gwent Challenger Qualifier Tournament

    Vishra mostly banned monsters and maybe Henselt. Fion banned ST (at least in our match)

    Posted in: News
  • 2

    posted a message on Skellige Faction Guide

    Great article Panda! Perfect for new players and people coming back after a break. Looking forward to the other factions!

    Posted in: Guides
  • 2

    posted a message on [Top 16 Challenger EU] Discard w/ Guide

    Yeah, this deck is quite weak as a budget deck, just because GIgni and Coral are the only two cards in this deck that can really generate huge tempo and allow you to contest round 1 and make up for the low strength of the rest of your deck. Ciri and Birna are decent, but you'll need to get creative with them as this deck so rarely wins round 1. Ciri is also worse without roach. Yen Con does not provide too much value against the decks you're struggling with, but if you do run her, consider replacing resto for a scorch, as that can be quite unexpected out of an SK deck (and your units don't really block it). If you have Aeromancy, it can do a very good coral impression (you can usually play it as fog without any drawback or use armorsmith to restore the strength). With the golds you have though, I would honestly recommend playing axemen over discard (as much as I hate the former), Boar/YenCon/Ciri/Birna is a very solid gold suite for that deck. Once you get either GIgni or Coral though this deck is more than viable, and you can run any of your other golds with those.

    Oh and against wounding and consume specifically, cleaver is crazy good with all the ways to recycle it, would recommend it over restoration

    Posted in: [Top 16 Challenger EU] Discard w/ Guide
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